Last Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy allowed the Russian authorities to hold the so-called parade in Moscow. He issued an order excluding Red Square from Ukrainian strikes during the three-day ceasefire for “humanitarian purposes.” So a couple of old men, clearly losing their grip, were able to admire the remnants of their military capabilities.
Pathetic.
And, true to form for a declining state, losing on the frontline, Russia launched another massive attack, using more than 1,500 drones within 24 hours, along with 41 missiles. Ukraine’s formidable air defence shot down 93% of the targets. That is a significant achievement, considering both the scale of the attack and the size of Ukraine’s territory.
Intercepting ballistic missiles remains difficult and expensive. Fire Point, the producer of Flaming missiles and now also FP-7 and FP-9 missiles, aims to create an analogue of the MIM-104 Patriot system — a cheaper way to counter ballistic threats. Hopefully, they will have it ready within a year.
As for drones, Ukrainians can now launch their famous interceptor drones from aircraft, which is a remarkable development. It is the first time air-defence drones have been launched from an aircraft. The Antonov An-28, used as a “flying battery” for interceptor drones, is considered optimal because of its ability to take off from unprepared airstrips and its compact dimensions — a wingspan of 22 meters and a fuselage length of 12.98 meters.
The An-28 can carry up to 19 people, effectively limiting the number of weapons operators on board. Its maximum flight speed is 355 km/h, and its range is between 1,200 and 1,900 kilometers, allowing it to loiter for extended periods while intercepting enemy UAVs.
Another encouraging development in air defence is that the Ukrainian company Celebra has integrated its Trident laser weapon into mobile counter-drone systems. The company says it plans to present the final product within a month or so, once the paperwork is finalized and military approval is granted.
Now, about the costs.
Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces Robert Brovdi stated that it costs approximately $882 to eliminate one Russian invader. His unit has consistently succeeded in killing between 30,000 and 35,000 Russian troops per month — the minimum number required to offset the number of soldiers Russia recruits during the same period.
These statistics are publicly available online, and they account only for visually confirmed losses. Around 20% of losses remain undocumented.
Some USF units destroy targets on the front lines, while others conduct medium-range strikes deep in the rear. More secretive units carry out long-range strikes even farther behind enemy lines.
Those operations give us sexy images of Russian oil refineries and depots burning, depriving Russia of oil-export revenues, even amid the war involving Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, according to the Defence Minister, the Defense Forces already possess missiles whose characteristics are similar to those of the German Taurus KEPD 350.
All of the above — air-defence successes, spectacular strikes inside Russia, rapid technological development, and Vladimir Putin’s increasingly pathetic posture — has become the main reason many foreign observers have recently said that Ukraine has turned the tide of the war.
I want this to result in a decisive Ukrainian victory and an end to the war through diplomacy — with Ukraine in a strong enough position to force Russia to accept the terms Ukraine needs.